In 10 years' time, will Brexit be considered a broadly positive move for the UK?

In a political era where the status quo can be transformed in an instant, ten years is a long time in politics. Despite this, I posit that Brexit will be considered to have been a broadly negative move for the UK in ten years’ time. This negativity does not so much concern hardship in Britain’s economic and commercial sphere; instead it concerns the erosion of progressive values. This conclusion is made on the basis of what I view as being the most likely outcome of Brexit: a no-deal scenario. There are a multitude of ominous forecasts for Britain’s commercial landscape in response to a no-deal outcome, particularly regarding labour, trade, and consumer confidence. There is predicted to be a shortage of low-skilled labour, the imposition of tariffs and long waits at border control are likely to deter trade, and the prevalence of uncertainty in markets is likely to damage consumer spending. These predictions, whilst damning, will almost certainly equilibrate in ten years. It will likely take a few years for the dust to settle, but ten years of rebalancing offers a big opportunity for the economy to be reinvigorated.Given that I am hopeful for the long term strength of our economy, it might seem inconsistent that I believe Brexit will be considered as a broadly negative move. Where ten years is a long time to rebalance the economy, it is a brief period to atone for the eschewal of tolerant values. Where the world is becoming increasingly connected, Brexit constitutes a tangible rejection of global progression. Modern values of openness, diversity, and inclusivity are subverted for the cause of ‘patriotism;’ but what is patriotic about forcing division between the UK and its neighbours when its national interest tends towards cooperation? Brexit, in ten years, is likely to be included as a key example of the rise of right-wing populism across Europe. Whilst our economy may recover from this decision, the circumvention of progressive values will not be mitigated in this period. Even if the economy is bolstered after ten years of Brexit, quality of life would have to be dramatically improved in order to justify the evasion of progressive values. Such dramatic improvement is unlikely, and ten years is unlikely to paint Brexit in a broadly positive light.